Wyeth (WYE)

All Comments on WYE

  • commenter
    Bonnie Wyatt
    Sep 18 02:17 AM
    My Website
    Biotech Week In Review: Barron’s Touts Alzheimers Drugs From Wyeth [view article]
    This was a very informative article. Reply
  • commenter
    Daniel
    Hennessy
    Sep 15 10:36 AM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    I am going to have to agree with Point here. While there are some truths to this article, there are also some overgeneralizations and key points missing. It is true that big pharma is definitely facing major headwinds, and patent expiration will lead to large revenue losses for many big pharma players. This article indicates that the only way to replace these lost revenues is to buy biotechs. It should be noted that big pharma employs ~80,000 research scientists and spent $56.1 billion in R&D in 2007. Historical data indicates that return on invested R&D exceeds the cost of capital. The author makes a case for acquisitions of small biotechs to meet the external growth needs of big pharma, but entirely disregards the value of internal development. Big Pharma has maintained large R&D investments for decades; not all of them will be able to make up for revenue losses from patent expiration (such as Pfizer's Lipitor), but to dismiss the returns on tax-free R&D investments and to assume that the only path to growth is via external acquisitions of small biotechs greatly undervalues the potential of big pharma, and overvalues the potential for small biotech. The more gloom and doom I hear on the web about big pharma and its impending demise, the more I realize that there are tremendous values that arise from such sentiment. Reply
  • commenter
    in4thelongha
    ul
    Sep 14 04:14 PM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    That was supposed to read BIIB & ELN....NOT "BIIG"....Bi... and Elan. Reply
  • commenter
    in4thelongha
    ul
    Sep 14 03:54 PM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    Another factor involved in the motivation of BP to acquire smaller developmental biotechs, besides existing drugs and the pipeline, is the repatriation of huge amounts of cash currently being held overseas as well as the debt which these biotechs have accrued over the years...these can be directly applied as tax deductions to BP.

    A few examples of likely acquisitions are BIIG & ELN for the Tysabri franchise and the attractive pipeline.

    Dendreon (DNDN) is another independent biotech which BP has been closely watching; their lead candidate 'Provenge', for the treatment of end-stage prostate cancer, has multi-billion dollar potential not to mention the incredible value of their cassette technology which may hold promise for multiple types of cancer. Results of the interim evaluation for Provenge are expected in October...if sufficiently positive, Provenge could receive an FDA decision by 1Q09. Considering DNDN's SPA with FDA, seems highly likely that numerous BP players will be tripping over one another to either cinch a ROW partnership with Dendreon or make an outright acquisition upon very positive interim results. Upon positive interim, DNDN's sh/pr could easily reach $25.00 as it did once before following the FDA's Advisory Committee results in 2007. In the event of interim results only sufficient to guarantee trial continuation to its likely 2009 conclusion, the high short interest, stable financial base (for a bio-tech), healthy inst. support, plus incredible prior efficacy indications are likely to insure a sh/pr floor of approx. $3.00...where it will be the opportunity of a lifetime.

    GNVC is another small biotech whose upcoming results with TNFerade could create an overnight 5-bagger or trigger a buyout offer...at $1.35sh the risk/reward seems highly favorable considering the pipeline and past preliminary indications of efficacy.     Reply
  • commenter
    Peppio
    Sep 14 03:50 PM
    My Website
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    To mcj96 : Thanks, will take a look into SVNT.
    After spending 10 minutes to read your lonnnng comment,
    it better be worthwhile.     Reply
  • commenter
    mcj96
    Sep 14 03:31 PM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    Andrew: Big pharma has to replace an estimated 60B in revs starting in 2011. They are presently cutting personnel, down-sizing R&D depts and out-sourcing more of the leg-work to identify new and promising investigational drugs. It is clear that big pharma will mainly pursue partnerships or mergers with small to mid-sized bio companies that have very promising mid to late-stage biologic drugs with blockbuster potential. One small biotech company that fits this profile is Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT). Full disclosure: I currently own over 125k shares of the company and have been long since late 2004. SVNT has completed their Pegloticase P3 and 6 month OLE study and topline results were robust. 5 of 6 study endpoints were met with statistical significance. Pegloticase has orphan status and is expected to receive priority review next month when SVNT files its US BLA. Pegloticase will have zero competition once it is approved in late 2Q09 and in the EU approximately 6 months later. The orphan US gout mkt is estimated to have up to 100k patients with similar estimates in the EU,Asia and Latin America. In addition, the US tophi mkt which is estimated to be 5 times larger than the orphan mkt (approx 500k patients) will be an easy gout indication for SVNT to add to the label given the fact P2, P3 and the 6 month OLE study demonstrated tophi elimination. No gout drug in the world has ever shown disease modification in a phase study. Analysts and industry thought leaders estimate that Pegloticase will be priced similar to Remicade and Elitek (15-25k/yr). Palo Alto, Oppenheimer and others estimate that peak US revenues alone could be 1B. SVNT has zero debt, over 100M in cash and has guidedthat they will announce either a partnership deal or M&A deal at the end of this month (Sept. 08). If SVNT is acquired by big pharma, a multiple of 4-5 times peak revenue estimates is expected, similar to what GILD paid for MYOG when it sought Ambrisentan. Finally, if biosimilar legislation is passed in 2009 or 2010, biotech companies will be given an additional 5-7 years of market exclusivity on top of existing patents. In conclusion,SVNT is the right stock at the right time. Reply
  • commenter
    onthecliff
    Sep 14 11:59 AM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    Not sure that one could charterize Bayer as a small biotech. Reply
  • commenter
    Shiv139
    Sep 14 11:35 AM
    My Website
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    Point - good catch. There are too many bloggers who really have no clue, but do have an opinion. If you ask me, blogs are very dangerous places to use as a source for investment ideas, but a great place to look for sentiment. Reply
  • commenter
    point
    Sep 14 09:35 AM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    I have never read this guy's work before, but I will tell you that at least in one case, he has no idea what he is talking about. His comments about Advair being off patent may be true, but there will not be a generic for several years because there are multiple other patents in force regarding the drug. His advice is flat out wrong regarding Advair. It worries me that it appears he has a baseline, rudimentary (at best) understanding of patents and intellecual property and how they apply commericially. Reply
  • commenter
    wow!
    Sep 14 08:43 AM
    Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom [view article]
    NO WAY! thanks for your insight Andrew, you really know your way around pharma. I'm off now to put your prescient words to good use and make some sound investments based on the leads you provided here. Thanks! Again! Reply
  • commenter
    Peppio
    Sep 11 04:42 PM
    My Website
    Summer Surge for Pharma Powers IHE, but Concerns Remain [view article]
    Pharma power is correct. People always need drugs one way or the other, young & old, new drugs or old drugs.
    No other country sells more drugs/medicine than the U.S.
    People are relying on drugs more & more, either for illness or for sex, or for no reason. So, save to buy stocks on these drug-making companies.     Reply
  • commenter
    marketneutra
    l
    Sep 06 10:48 AM
    My Website
    Hedge Fund Tracking: Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin) [view article]
    Looking for a hedge fund job? The best way to get one is to contact them directly with your resume and cover letter. Now the hard part - finding a list of hedge funds. There are really no free lists, but there are some very cheap ones at www.hedgefundjoblist.c... Reply
  • commenter
    Right in
    San
    Francisco
    Sep 05 11:58 AM
    My Website
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    The productivity number of + 4.3% for the second quarter is an outlier in an economic downturn. It does help explain why unemployment is now over 6% and we are losing 50 to 100,000 jobs per month while profits are holding up (outside of financial companies) and real hourly earnings are increasing. Reply
  • commenter
    wsigler
    Sep 05 10:58 AM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    RE: DELL: Now there's a real sign of the times...Dell selling all its manufacturing facilities world-wide. Remember the "good ol' days" when Dell was an icon for profitable business and many of us made our fortunes from its stock? Sad.....not the first nor the last - but yet another sign portending lots of economic pain ahead for American companies... Reply
  • commenter
    User 199792
    Sep 05 09:08 AM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    Believe it or not, China's CB needs cash. The People's Bank of China, China's highly-leveraged central bank, is in need of a capital infusion. It owns about $1T in Treasury and mortgage-backed debt - on a capital base of just $3.2B - the value of which is declining sharply on the heels of a strong yuan. It could, of course, print more money, but not without running the risk of stoking inflation. The predicament could prompt China to stop allowing the yuan to continue rising vs. the dollar, heightening its trade tensions with the U.S. ****LOOK OUT BELOW*** Reply
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