JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Yes, indeed. What is causing the fear? Greece, potential blowup of the Eurozone, Chinese hard landing, and lastly (and I believe most important) - JP Morgan trading loss. This loss was caused by only 45-50 basis points move against JPM position (200-260 bln. dollars position, and what is the mcap of JPM? Calculate the nasty leverage, that is NOT their only speculative position there), and nobody here knows what are the positions of other banks in derivative markets, meaning - if best of the bunch blew it, what is going on with the rest of the bunch? Can that happen tomorrow to MS, GS, or BAC? That causes many sleepless nights around, believe me.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
The movement has been explosive for the last 5 days. Just look at those full red candles. The slope won't tell you much unless you couple it with fundamental issues, like this IG9-10 JPM short trade. Greece is not the bigger part of this, I believe. Credit markets are full of fear, but for other reasons.
Looking at yields instead of prices won't help, but for sure look at UST 10-year and UST 30-year Yields, 1.80 and 3.00 are line in the sands respectively.
Once more: credit event can still be avoided, but those spreads have to narrow fast and substantially.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Sure. You are right, it is not absolute value of $JNK and $TLT that indicates something per se, but the spread: if you overlay charts, you can see that the credit spreads are blowing out very precipitously. So, there is one needed ingredient: speed. Second, people are leaving everything else in a Credit markets- junk, sovereign, emerging markets debts, for the safety of US Treasury. That indicates great fear on a level that is consistent with the Credit event. What is the gauge of that fear? Speed of the credit spreads blowout.
Now, I will say it again: it is possible that we avoid it, but ONLY if credit spreads start to narrow, but not slowly, they must narrow very fast. Junk debt has higher capital structure than stocks and its fall filters to stocks with lag.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Believe me, this is a crash message. If not reversed very soon, crash will happen. Bond markets are sending the unique message, don't underestimate it. I am not, nor overestimate it.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
The fall is so precipitous, that the message is clear: Credit event underway. Maybe we can avoid it at the last moment, but ONLY if Credit spreads start to narrow FAST.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
And one more thing: if you see $JNK collapsing again or not rallying substantially, sell every possible rip and get out of the way.
Also, have no illusion: if the Bond market is right (usually is), then Stock market will crash from oversold levels (we are now oversold). Just observe.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
I urge everyone: forget about Facebook, Apple, and that kind of stuff. Watch $JNK (Junk Debt), EMB (Emerging Markets Debt) and $TLT (US Nominal treasuries in the next few days). If the former ($JNK, $EMB) don't rally substantially and the latter ($TLT) don't fall substantially (so the Credit spreads narrow fast), then we are in a big trouble.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Yes, Credit event is another Lehman-class event. Credit markets now assume that one is around the corner (whether is that a possible margin call hitting JP Morgan which would spread like a wildfire through US financial system, or something else), but I repeat: credit markets now see Credit event in the US, Europe and Emerging Markets underway.
For proof see charts of $JNK/$IEF, $PCY/$IEF, $EMB/$TLT. Junk Debt is collapsing, as well as Sovereign Debt and Emerging Markets Debt, and all that relative to US Nominal Treasuries ($IEF, $TLT), so Credit spreads are blowing out like mad in the last 7 days.
We have maybe 48 hours that these spreads start to narrow rapidly and massively. If not, Bond market is sending a Crash message.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Bruno Iksil's IG9-10 short leg of a trade WAS NOT a hedge, it was a pure speculative bet. JP Morgan can't unwind it that easily, because it is a mega-giga 200-250 bln dollars trade, and it keeps moving against JP Morgan. And think how large is the derivative market, and about all the positions taken there, which could easily cause massive margin calls within a nanosecond.
We already have a message from credit markets: $JNK, $HYG and $EMB are collapsing versus nominal Treasuries ($IEF, $TLT), in such a precipitous way that we can say credit event is underway. If no rapid and massive spread narrowing, well then... Brace for impact.
Yes, Michael is so knowledgeable, and what he does has really nothing to do with being bullish or bearish: he interprets intramarket trends without any bias.
Michael, I do owe you an apology. You are an honourable and intelligent gentleman. If my comments during Twitter debate were insulting in tone (I never intended that), I do sincerely apologize. Also, I never had any intention to judge your character, but I now see it is a character of a gentleman. Also, by more thoroughly analyzing your texts and calls, I can see you were right most of the time.
It is amazing (but maybe not that amazing) that you are blocking people on Twitter after a very civil debate, just because they don't support your imaginary Spring Switch ideas; Huge vanity, what is it?
But now, even you are concerned, you see JNK and IEF performances for sure, I am certain you didn't miss those; Now you know something is wrong with your call.
Vanity is a different thing, would be good if you can get over it.
Yes, They Do: Low Interest Rates Do Make Stocks Cheap [View article]
Chuck,
Your introduction says it all. Who gives you the right to call pessimists losers?? What are you, some kind of supreme judge being, so you are the only one familiar with the truth? Get over yourself, please. People have right to make independent analysis regardless of your ultra (perma) bullish bias. And if you decide that it is pessimism, you will just fire an insult, and expect us to take it?
In July 2009, physicist Didier Sornette from Politechnikum University in Zurich (the same one Einstein attended) published a scientific work (not this mumbo-jumbo you all here publish pretending you know something, but a real scientific work), making a case for a 25% fall in Shanghai Composite Index in a course of a month; he was ridiculed, called by many names ("lunatic", "false prophet") - obviously, the bulls were not satisfied. Regardless, the drawdown had begun one month later, bringing Shanghai Composite 25% lower! Of course, the bulls were the first to rush for the exits in panic and disbelief. Now, Prof. Sornette didn't have any position there: he just wrote a scientific work. Since then, Chinese mainland stock market index never made it to new highs. In 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 pessimists were greatly rewarded, either by staying on the sidelines during great market washouts, or by actively shorting the market; but all of them who really folowed your advice felt a lost decade. Now, I would recommend a more balanced approach, including macro issues, but I don't know if I am writing in vane.
The U.S. Economy In Q1: Slow, Steady And Vulnerable [View article]
James, I left my comment there, which is a bit harsh, but only one possible by my opinion. Carnevale didn't just did a hack job on you, but essentially on all bears and short sellers here.
Which reminds me - your famous six month market call expired two days ago, and market still didn't initiate a bear leg towards 950-1020 SPX region. Do you have anything to say about that?
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Looking at yields instead of prices won't help, but for sure look at UST 10-year and UST 30-year Yields, 1.80 and 3.00 are line in the sands respectively.
Once more: credit event can still be avoided, but those spreads have to narrow fast and substantially.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Now, I will say it again: it is possible that we avoid it, but ONLY if credit spreads start to narrow, but not slowly, they must narrow very fast. Junk debt has higher capital structure than stocks and its fall filters to stocks with lag.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
http://bit.ly/JqgD32
The fall is so precipitous, that the message is clear: Credit event underway. Maybe we can avoid it at the last moment, but ONLY if Credit spreads start to narrow FAST.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
Also, have no illusion: if the Bond market is right (usually is), then Stock market will crash from oversold levels (we are now oversold). Just observe.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
For proof see charts of $JNK/$IEF, $PCY/$IEF, $EMB/$TLT. Junk Debt is collapsing, as well as Sovereign Debt and Emerging Markets Debt, and all that relative to US Nominal Treasuries ($IEF, $TLT), so Credit spreads are blowing out like mad in the last 7 days.
We have maybe 48 hours that these spreads start to narrow rapidly and massively. If not, Bond market is sending a Crash message.
JPMorgan's (JPM) losses from its disastrous trades could reach $5B or more, the WSJ reports, as the bank struggles to unwind its positions. Major problems include increasing worries about Greece and the the EU economy. Meanwhile, the CFTC becomes the latest government agency to open a probe into the debacle, the NYT reports. [View news story]
We already have a message from credit markets: $JNK, $HYG and $EMB are collapsing versus nominal Treasuries ($IEF, $TLT), in such a precipitous way that we can say credit event is underway. If no rapid and massive spread narrowing, well then... Brace for impact.
Lumber And The Spring Switch Redux [View article]
And may I add: he is great in debates!
Lumber And The Spring Switch Redux [View article]
Lumber And The Spring Switch Redux [View article]
I hope you will accept this sincere apology.
Lumber And The Spring Switch Redux [View article]
But now, even you are concerned, you see JNK and IEF performances for sure, I am certain you didn't miss those; Now you know something is wrong with your call.
Vanity is a different thing, would be good if you can get over it.
Yes, They Do: Low Interest Rates Do Make Stocks Cheap [View article]
Your introduction says it all. Who gives you the right to call pessimists losers?? What are you, some kind of supreme judge being, so you are the only one familiar with the truth? Get over yourself, please. People have right to make independent analysis regardless of your ultra (perma) bullish bias. And if you decide that it is pessimism, you will just fire an insult, and expect us to take it?
In July 2009, physicist Didier Sornette from Politechnikum University in Zurich (the same one Einstein attended) published a scientific work (not this mumbo-jumbo you all here publish pretending you know something, but a real scientific work), making a case for a 25% fall in Shanghai Composite Index in a course of a month; he was ridiculed, called by many names ("lunatic", "false prophet") - obviously, the bulls were not satisfied. Regardless, the drawdown had begun one month later, bringing Shanghai Composite 25% lower! Of course, the bulls were the first to rush for the exits in panic and disbelief. Now, Prof. Sornette didn't have any position there: he just wrote a scientific work. Since then, Chinese mainland stock market index never made it to new highs. In 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 pessimists were greatly rewarded, either by staying on the sidelines during great market washouts, or by actively shorting the market; but all of them who really folowed your advice felt a lost decade. Now, I would recommend a more balanced approach, including macro issues, but I don't know if I am writing in vane.
The U.S. Economy In Q1: Slow, Steady And Vulnerable [View article]
Which reminds me - your famous six month market call expired two days ago, and market still didn't initiate a bear leg towards 950-1020 SPX region. Do you have anything to say about that?