jdlech

Down to Three Positions, I'm Ready for End of Bear Market

I've managed to minimize my losses quite handily by buying SIJ on margin. So as my regular stocks take a beating, SIJ offsets the losses. There will be a bottom eventually. So sometime after that, I will take my profits on SIJ and then ride my regular longs up. The nice thing about this is that even with the markets volatility, my portfolio remains relatively stable. I don't even have to worry about missing the bottom as that just means I don't make as much as I could; but I'm not losing. These days, even the good companies are being punished. So I'm keeping track of the fundamentals as usual. That determines when I should buy or sell; not the stock price.

Dark Pools of Liquidity Are Coming Around Again

Perhaps you should complain. Dark pools of liquidity are fine, in and of themselves. They provide a much needed level of safety for the big dogs whose rivals like to screw with them as much as possible. If the big companies got along like civilized people, there would be no need for dark pools. But such is not a part of the real world.
So these pools are tolerated. But as we can plainly see, a hedge fund could naked short a quarter million shares without anyone knowing about it until those shares move out of the pool and into the regular market. All the SEC would see is the shares coming out of the pool; but not know who sold them. Bit when it comes time for the pool owners to report the non delivery of a quarter million shares, the SEC should punish the pool owner. What never enters or leaves the pools will not harm the open market or those trading openly. It's what flows into and out of them that can help or harm the retail investor.

Ultimately, the pool owners should be the ones taking responsibility for all that goes into and comes out of their pools. I just hope the SEC agrees with me.

Playtesting of Chinese Games Crucial to Understanding Market

That is not even Perfect Worlds best game. This is a **Chinese** gaming company. If one is to get a feel for the game - and therefore, the company, one would have to get the opinion of the target audience. Something is almost always lost in translation from Chinese to English.

Fact: the english speaking market is already nearly saturated - over 70% of American households have internet. But only 19% of Chinese households have internet and there's already more Chinese online than there are Americans. The growth potential for those who target the Chinese gaming audience is obvious, and who better to target them than a Chinese company?. For Perfect World, the English game versions are like sprinkles on an already delicious cake - hardly even neccessary.

Indicator Points to Higher Gas Prices - and 3 Potential Power Plays

For those who seem to misunderstand, gas is not oil. When Asian gas prices reduce consumption, Asia will buy less oil. That means more oil supply for the rest of the world. QED, lower oil prices. The American demand for gas will be largely unaffected by the price of oil. QED, wider crack spreads.

Now, gasoline is just one product made from oil. These refineries are producing hundreds of different chemicals that are used in everything from the food you eat to the plastic containers in which they come. Already, the refiners should be swithing over to producing millions of gallons of heating oil for the winter instead of gasoline and diesel fuel. It's important to consider the crack spread on ALL of these chemicals.

Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue

I do not believe speculation is as significant as the author believes. I'm more inclined to believe todays oil prices are mostly a matter of supply and demand. Our ability to pump it, refine it, and deliver it has remained largely flat while our consumption has continued to rise. There's plenty of sources for this assertion on the web - pick whatever source you feel most competent.
The spike in the price indicates that oil is leveraged; a 20% increase in demand resulted in a near 100% increase in price. I don't know the exact leverage mechanism and I'm not willing to claim a guess is fact. We know what is happening, but I have not found any solid numbers that point to why it's happening. Without such numbers, it's all speculation on speculation.

Massive Government and Private Sector Job Cuts Coming

Just how many jobs can niche job boards and social networks absorb?
Also, unemployment will soar only for a little while. The official unemployment rate only considers those who *currently* qualify for the program. Those who's unemployment runs out are also dropped from the statistics regardless of their employment prospects. Effectively, 6 months after the last job in America is lost, the official unemployment rate will be zero and the American propaganda machine will be calling it a full employment miracle.

High Incarceration Rate Weighing On U.S. Economy, with Upside for Corrections Corp.

Making prisoners pay for their own incarceration seems vaguely remeniscent of the labor camps of WWII. There's no question that profiling is a self fulfilling prophesy and that incarceration rates shall only continue rising in America. Eventually, our ultra conservative society (compared to the rest of the world) will resort to more harsh treatment of these prisoners to make them 'pay their way'.
That said, the economically rational mind would buy CXW. Morality has nothing to do with making money. As messed up as I think our society is becoming - and I really think this is messed up - the pursuit of profit dictates that CXWs business plan is a good one.

High Likelihood of a Market Crash

We've managed to spend nearly a trillion dollars outside the country. That is to say, we've managed to take nearly a trillion dollars out of the economy. We have a crumbling infrastructure with bridges and levees already failing. Oil at $130+ per barrel with no end in sight - cheap oil is history. We have ignored the very support structures of our economic strength. Of course there's going to be a reckoning; it's a matter of when, not if.
A crash of 300 pts may seem like a lot today, but we'll look back on it as a drop in the bucket soon enough.

Airlines Up on Lower Oil, Financials Next?

I think you're fantasizing. The steady drumbeat of bad financials news continues on with regionals like Fifth Third now diving to new lows. But we'll see how the market feels today.

Will the Banks Rebound? Cramer's Mad Money (5/30/08)

There's players on Motley Fools CAPS that admittedly play only 1 1/2 hours on the weekend scoring better than Cramer. What does that tell you? Follow your own drumbeat. As for this site, I find it no better - and no worse than the hundreds of other sites that publish hype and doom for advertising dollars. And I find nearly everything I read is hype and doom; even the so called 'news'.
getjdb, you should be the only expert you consider worth following. Buffet, Heebner, et. al. should be considered mentors and fonts of advice and wisdom. But the only person who has your best interest in mind, however, is always going to be you.

Doug Kass's Killer Shorts - Barron's

If you want to bet on shrinking disposable income, it would be far better to short American midcap consummables companies who live on branding. Look for a company without a lot of foreign exposure.
Yes, people who feel poorer will thrift just about anything - even toothpaste and TP; opting to buy generic over name brand. And they will do so even when both are within just a few pennies of each other.
I've known people who would drive 30 miles out of their way to save a couple of pennies per gallon of gasoline despite the fact that they burn $3 to do it. The average consumer is not always the epitome of homo economicus rationality.
Caveat commodator